As a presidential election draws closer, Americans often look for signs that their candidate will win. Of course, there are traditional indicators like polling and statistical forecasts. But there are also some nontraditional election predictors that have a longstanding tradition of being right. Some of them are even fun! Here are 6 unusual predictors of presidential elections that are rarely wrong.
1. Washington Commanders Last Home Game Outcome
A strange coincidence that started in 1940 has now become a presidential election predictor. When the Washington team wins their last home game before an election, the incumbent retains the White House. The rule remained true from 1940-2000 and fell apart in 2004 with the George W. Bush election. Then it was reaffirmed when Barack Obama won in 2008. Did you see the Commander’s thrilling Hail Mary pass that won the game on Sunday against the Bears? Even if it doesn’t predict the outcome of the election, it sure was an exciting game.
2. Who Has The Deeper Voice?
In a 2015 experiment by University of Miami professor Casey Klofstad, it was found that American men and women are more likely to vote for the candidate with a deeper voice. The one exception is that when there is a female opponent, the candidate with the higher-pitched voice had a better result. The study focused on how candidates are perceived by voters in several elections. So, who has the higher-pitched voice in this race?
3. Which Candidate is Taller?
Known as The Abe Lincoln Advantage, candidates who are taller than others in their generation and gender fare better. Academic studies have demonstrated that the taller presidential candidate has won about two-thirds of the time. Think about it, taller people are usually seen as leaders and are deferred to in social settings. Abe Lincoln was 6’4″ in 1804, a political giant!
4. Who’s Hosting The Olympics?
There are always politics involved in who hosts the Olympic Games. Since 1968 (excluding a 1988 anomaly), if the country hosting the summer games has hosted an Olympics in the past, the incumbent party will hang on to the White House. However, if a country is hosting the Olympics for the first time, the incumbent party loses. All eyes are on Paris, which has hosted the Olympics three times.
5. Did The Lakers Play in The NBA Finals?
Apparently, The Lakers are an important team to predict presidential elections. In elections since 1960 (minus 2008), Republicans have won the White House if the Los Angeles Lakers played in that year’s NBA Finals. They don’t have to win the whole thing, they just have to make an appearance in the finals. This year was a showdown between the Celtics and the Mavericks.
6. How Did The Oscar’s Best Picture Movie End?
This predictor indicates the mood of the country at the time. Four years ago, it was discovered that since 1976 there has been a link between presidential race outcomes and the Oscar winner for Best Picture that year. It’s simple- Did the movie that won Best Picture at the Oscars earlier that election year have a happy ending? If yes, the incumbent party will win. If the movie ends on a sad note, then the White House will turn over. This year’s Best Picture was Oppenheimer – pretty sad and haunting.
Predictions That Are Almost Always Right
Some of these predictors contradict each other of course. Not all of them can be right. When races are tight, we look to some unusual correlations and patterns to make future predictions. Which presidential election predictors do you believe? Soon, we’ll find out which were right in the election cycle.